The Mirage of Experts: When Certainty Conceals Uncertainty
We live in a world where everything is unpredictable, except for one thing: experts will continue to sell us precise scenarios like modern oracles. Armed with graphs, curves, and percentages, they claim to carve chaos into neat numerical slices. Uncertainty is not a bug in the system. It is its fundamental nature. Yet an entire class — or at least a highly influential segment of it — economists, geopolitical analysts, consultants, and “visionary” journalists — has built its legitimacy on denying this reality. Not all of them, but enough to shape public discourse around an illusion of predictability.
I am no exception. In February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched their military operation on February 28, I published an article titled Game Over. I laid out a linear, logical, almost mathematical scenario: an inevitable chain of events, predictable reactions, and an obvious outcome. A few weeks later, I had to revise my position. Reality had diverged, as it always does. This personal mistake reminded me with humility that no one is immune to the temptation of false certainty.
The Inflation of Arbitrary Numbers
Let’s take a glaring example that borders on the absurd: the daily economic losses attributed to Iran in recent conflicts across the Middle East. It’s not just human lives — financial losses are also reported in millions, sometimes even billions of dollars per day, with disconcerting precision. First we are told $200 million, then $250 million, then suddenly $450 million — before settling on a clean, reassuring figure of $500 million per day. On what basis? What verified field observation? What independent report? The answer is simple: no one truly knows with reliable real-time accuracy. These numbers are not data; they are fabricated precision — or at best, rough orders of magnitude misleadingly presented as precise measurements. We are witnessing the quantification of the void. The more precise the number, the more it reassures both the one who reports it and the one who hears it, when it should instead trigger skepticism. The calculator replaces strategy. The graph replaces discernment.
The Great Illusion of Linear Scenarios
The tragedy of this approach is that it treats history like a solvable equation. We line up statistics on losses, growth curves, demographic or economic projections as if the future were a simple extrapolation of the past. We forget the essential: we are dealing with changing, reactive, unpredictable human wills. The adversary improvises. People adapt. A leader makes a snap decision. A tiny event changes everything. Models can illuminate certain dynamics, but they become misleading the moment they claim to fully capture reality. The track record of failures is damning:
2007-2008: Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and nearly all economists assured us that systemic risk was under control. → Global financial crisis.
2016: All pollsters and political analysts declared Hillary Clinton the clear favorite. Donald Trump was “impossible.”
2020: “The virus will disappear in June,” “no second wave,” “vaccines stop transmission.”
2021-2022: “Inflation is transitory” (Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell).
2022: “Russia will collapse in three weeks,” “the ruble is dead.”
Artificial Intelligence: Since 2022, the promise of a productivity revolution “next year.” In 2026, productivity is still stagnating.
Some forecasts do come true, but they go unnoticed next to the spectacular mistakes that reveal the fragility of the certainties on display. Each time, the scenario seemed solid, well-argued, and coherent. Each time, reality took an unexpected turn.
Worth Acknowledging: Donald Trump and Navigating Uncertainty
In this fog, it is worth acknowledging President Donald Trump. Since his return to power, he has consistently defied the experts’ predictions. Why? Because his decisions do not rely solely on the heavy machinery of the state — its committees, reports, and models. They also rest on his personality, his instinct, his sense of timing, and his ability to embrace disorder rather than fear it. He did not invent this approach, but he has brought its logic into the open in a system that previously valued the illusion of control. Trump does not wait for perfect consensus from the calculators. He acts, adjusts, and triggers unexpected shifts. And often, reality proves him right where think tanks predicted disaster — even if this approach can also produce unpredictable and sometimes costly effects.
This is not a question of ideology, but of method: in a radically uncertain environment, the one who combines analysis, intuition, and flexibility beats rigid systems.
The Consequences of the Illusion of Precision
This culture of false precision is dangerous. It pushes states and businesses to make decisions based on mirages. They optimize to the extreme (just-in-time systems, massive debt, strategic dependencies) while believing everything is predictable. When the black swan arrives, everything collapses.
We lose touch with reality. We stare at the gauge on the calculator when we should be observing the deep currents, the breaks in rhythm, and the surges of human improvisation. The problem is not the use of numbers, but the excessive authority we grant them.
Rediscovering Reality: Humility and Antifragility
It is time to denounce this illusion. An uncertain world cannot be tamed with additions, but with a permanent capacity for adaptation. True mastery lies not in prediction, but in the humble recognition that the terrain will always have the last word over the map. Let us draw inspiration from Nassim Nicholas Taleb: let’s build antifragile systems that improve under stress. Safety margins, redundancy, diversity, and cultivated intuition. Thinking in terms of multiple scenarios rather than a single trajectory becomes an essential discipline. For citizens and leaders alike, we must relearn how to navigate in uncertainty, guided by three simple principles: experience, discernment, and constant vigilance in the face of the unexpected.
Conclusion
The real scandal is not that experts are wrong. They are human. The scandal is that we continue to grant them an almost religious authority and to shape our lives around their failed prophecies. In a profoundly uncertain world, the most dangerous expert is the one who pretends not to be one. Uncertainty is not our enemy. It is the very fabric of life, innovation, and freedom. It is not about rejecting models, but about recognizing their limits and making better decisions when they stop shedding light on action. Let us learn to dance with it. The next time an expert comes to explain with confidence, numbers in hand, what the world will look like in 2030… smile politely—and prepare for the opposite.
