The
Mirage of Experts: When Certainty Conceals Uncertainty
We
live in a world where everything is unpredictable, except for one
thing: experts will continue to sell us precise scenarios like modern
oracles. Armed with graphs, curves, and percentages, they claim to
carve chaos into neat numerical
slices. Uncertainty is not a bug
in the system. It is its fundamental nature. Yet an entire class —
or at least a highly influential segment of it — economists,
geopolitical analysts, consultants, and “visionary” journalists —
has built its legitimacy on denying this reality. Not all of them,
but enough to shape public discourse around an illusion of
predictability.
I
am no exception. In February 2026, when the United States and Israel
launched their military operation on February 28, I published an
article titled Game Over.
I laid out a linear, logical, almost mathematical scenario: an
inevitable chain of events, predictable reactions, and an obvious
outcome. A few weeks later, I had to revise my position. Reality had
diverged, as it always does. This personal mistake reminded me with
humility that no one is immune to the temptation of false certainty.
The
Inflation of Arbitrary Numbers
Let’s
take a glaring example that borders on the absurd: the daily economic
losses attributed to Iran in recent conflicts across the Middle East.
It’s not just human lives — financial losses are also reported in
millions, sometimes even billions of dollars per day, with
disconcerting precision. First
we are told $200 million, then $250 million, then suddenly $450
million — before settling on a clean, reassuring figure of $500
million per day.
On what basis? What verified field observation? What independent
report? The answer is simple: no one truly knows with reliable
real-time accuracy.
These numbers are not data; they are fabricated precision — or at
best, rough orders of magnitude misleadingly
presented as precise measurements.
We are witnessing the quantification of the void. The more precise
the number, the more it reassures both the one who reports it and the
one who hears it, when it should instead trigger skepticism. The
calculator replaces strategy. The graph replaces discernment.
The
Great Illusion of Linear Scenarios
The tragedy of this
approach is that it treats history like a solvable equation. We line
up statistics on losses, growth curves, demographic or economic
projections as if the future were a simple extrapolation of the past.
We forget the essential: we are dealing with changing, reactive,
unpredictable human wills. The adversary improvises. People adapt. A
leader makes a snap decision. A tiny event changes everything. Models
can illuminate certain dynamics, but they become misleading the
moment they claim to fully capture reality. The track record of
failures is damning:
2007-2008: Alan
Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and nearly all economists assured us that
systemic risk was under control. → Global financial crisis.
2016: All
pollsters and political analysts declared Hillary Clinton the clear
favorite. Donald Trump was “impossible.”
2020: “The
virus will disappear in June,” “no second wave,” “vaccines
stop transmission.”
2021-2022:
“Inflation is transitory” (Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell).
2022: “Russia
will collapse in three weeks,” “the ruble is dead.”
Artificial
Intelligence: Since 2022, the promise of a productivity revolution
“next year.” In 2026, productivity is still stagnating.
Some forecasts do
come true, but they go unnoticed next to the spectacular mistakes
that reveal the fragility of the certainties on display. Each time,
the scenario seemed solid, well-argued, and coherent. Each time,
reality took an unexpected turn.
Worth
Acknowledging: Donald Trump and Navigating Uncertainty
In
this fog, it is worth acknowledging President Donald Trump. Since his
return to power, he has consistently defied the experts’
predictions. Why? Because his decisions do not rely solely on the
heavy machinery of the state — its committees, reports, and models.
They also rest on his personality, his instinct, his sense of timing,
and his ability to embrace disorder rather than fear it. He did not
invent this approach, but he has brought its logic into the open in a
system that previously valued the illusion of control. Trump does not
wait for perfect consensus from the calculators. He acts, adjusts,
and triggers unexpected shifts.
And often, reality proves him right where think tanks predicted
disaster — even if this approach can also produce unpredictable and
sometimes costly effects.
This is not a
question of ideology, but of method: in a radically uncertain
environment, the one who combines analysis, intuition, and
flexibility beats rigid systems.
The
Consequences of the Illusion of Precision
This culture of
false precision is dangerous. It pushes states and businesses to make
decisions based on mirages. They optimize to the extreme
(just-in-time systems, massive debt, strategic dependencies) while
believing everything is predictable. When the black swan arrives,
everything collapses.
We lose touch with
reality. We stare at the gauge on the calculator when we should be
observing the deep currents, the breaks in rhythm, and the surges of
human improvisation. The problem is not the use of numbers, but the
excessive authority we grant them.
Rediscovering
Reality: Humility and Antifragility
It
is time to denounce this illusion. An uncertain world cannot be tamed
with additions, but with a permanent capacity for adaptation. True
mastery lies not in prediction, but in the humble recognition that
the terrain will always have the last word over the map. Let us draw
inspiration from Nassim Nicholas Taleb: let’s build antifragile
systems that improve under stress. Safety margins, redundancy,
diversity, and cultivated intuition. Thinking in terms of multiple
scenarios rather than a single trajectory becomes an essential
discipline. For citizens and leaders alike, we must relearn how to
navigate in uncertainty, guided by three simple
principles: experience, discernment, and constant vigilance in the
face of the unexpected.
Conclusion
The
real scandal is not that experts are wrong. They are human. The
scandal is that we continue to grant them an almost religious
authority and to shape our lives around their failed prophecies. In a
profoundly uncertain world, the most dangerous expert is the one who
pretends not to be one. Uncertainty is not our enemy. It is the very
fabric of life, innovation, and freedom. It is not about rejecting
models, but about recognizing their limits and making better
decisions when they stop shedding light on action. Let us learn to
dance with it. The next time an expert comes to explain with
confidence, numbers in hand, what the world will look like in 2030…
smile politely—and prepare for
the opposite.
