Ten days of strikes have changed the equation.
Iran now faces a stark choice: escalation or survival.
Ten days
after the start of Operation Epic Fury, the balance of power in the Middle East
has shifted dramatically. Iran has been severely weakened: Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei is dead, more than 3,000 military targets have been struck, a large
portion of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal is now out of service, and the
Iranian navy has been heavily degraded.
In this
context, Mojtaba Khamenei—appointed yesterday as the new Supreme Leader—has
inherited a wounded country and a war he did not start. Across the table, the
Donald Trump–Benjamin Netanyahu tandem holds the full initiative and has made
it clear that the operation will not stop until four key demands are met.
On the
Iranian side: Mojtaba facing two paths
The new
Supreme Leader must choose between two opposing lines driven by internal regime
pressures.
If he
listens to the hardliners: the Revolutionary Guards
He would
likely opt for full confrontation, a path of escalation that could include:
•
Large-scale attacks on Gulf oil facilities aimed at disrupting global energy
supply and influencing Western public opinion.
• Asymmetric actions designed to trigger a global economic shock and
internationalize the crisis in order to force negotiations.
• Possible threats involving radiological weapons (“dirty bombs”) if Western
retaliation is perceived as overwhelming.
This path
is extremely dangerous. It could destroy what remains of the country and
provoke an even more forceful response from Iran’s adversaries.
If he
listens to the moderates (quietly supported behind the scenes)
He could
pursue discreet negotiations: a deal aimed at preserving the regime rather than
defending military prestige, in exchange for gradual concessions.
Current developments suggest five possible options:
- Backchannel
de-escalation
through mediators to secure a ceasefire without formally admitting defeat.
- Symbolic
retaliation followed by a sudden halt: a limited strike accompanied by a
declaration that revenge has been achieved.
- Externalizing
the conflict through proxies such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Iraqi militias to maintain
pressure without directly exposing Iranian territory.
- Internal
regime consolidation through increased repression by the Basij, nationalist
mobilization, and freezing the conflict.
- The
nuclear leverage option, accelerating the program to strengthen Iran’s bargaining position
and force negotiations.
All these
options share a common objective: buying time without triggering the
collapse of the regime.
On the
US and Israeli side: how to end the operation
If Iran is
looking for an exit, Trump and Netanyahu have several ways to conclude Epic
Fury and convert military dominance into a lasting political outcome:
- Continue
airstrikes for several more weeks until the remaining military
capabilities (missiles, factories, bases) are destroyed.
- Declare
victory once the main objectives are achieved and move to a monitoring and
sanctions phase.
- Complete
the destruction of remaining strategic targets, particularly nuclear
facilities and naval infrastructure.
- Open
indirect negotiations and use military pressure to impose a settlement.
- Increase
internal pressure to further destabilize the regime and potentially
trigger its collapse.
The most
likely scenario in the next 48 hours
The current
phase is critical.
The United
States and Israel appear to be accelerating the pace of strikes—marked by a
noticeable increase in air operations—to convince Tehran that continuing the
war no longer makes sense.
The
objective is clear: destroy both the capacity and the willingness to resist,
forcing Iran into rapid negotiations without deploying ground forces.
If Mojtaba
Khamenei is still effectively in control, he may initially listen to hardliners
and attempt a limited retaliation against Gulf states or threaten radiological
weapons.
However,
the response would likely be overwhelming, forcing him to shift back toward
moderates and quietly accept negotiations.
This may be
precisely what Washington and Tel Aviv are trying to achieve: forcing a
decision within 48 hours.
Possible outcomes
|
Scenario |
Mojtaba’s choice |
Trump–Netanyahu choice |
Probability |
|
Full escalation |
Attacks on Gulf
states + radiological threats |
Immediate overwhelming response |
Low |
|
Quiet negotiation |
Gradual concessions |
Maximum pressure
followed by agreement |
Very high |
|
Declared victory |
Conflict freeze |
End of strikes +
monitoring/sanctions |
High |
|
Regime collapse |
Fight to the end |
Support internal uprising |
Medium |
Conclusion
For Mojtaba
Khamenei, the equation is brutal: resist and risk the destruction of the
country… or negotiate and preserve the regime.
For Donald
Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, the calculation is different: end the war
without giving Iran the opportunity to rebuild.
The next
few hours could therefore be decisive.
Wars do not
end when one side wins.
They end when one side realizes it can no longer win.
Tehran may
be reaching that point.
Within
48 hours, we may know whether Iran chooses survival—or its final gamble.
What do you
think?
If Mojtaba
truly holds power, will he attempt one last strike against Gulf states—or
accept forced negotiations?
Share your
thoughts in the comments.
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