The moment of truth for Mojtaba Khamenei and the Trump–Netanyahu duo

Ten days of strikes have changed the equation.

Iran now faces a stark choice: escalation or survival.

Ten days after the start of Operation Epic Fury, the balance of power in the Middle East has shifted dramatically. Iran has been severely weakened: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead, more than 3,000 military targets have been struck, a large portion of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal is now out of service, and the Iranian navy has been heavily degraded.

In this context, Mojtaba Khamenei—appointed yesterday as the new Supreme Leader—has inherited a wounded country and a war he did not start. Across the table, the Donald Trump–Benjamin Netanyahu tandem holds the full initiative and has made it clear that the operation will not stop until four key demands are met.

On the Iranian side: Mojtaba facing two paths

The new Supreme Leader must choose between two opposing lines driven by internal regime pressures.

If he listens to the hardliners: the Revolutionary Guards

He would likely opt for full confrontation, a path of escalation that could include:

• Large-scale attacks on Gulf oil facilities aimed at disrupting global energy supply and influencing Western public opinion.
• Asymmetric actions designed to trigger a global economic shock and internationalize the crisis in order to force negotiations.
• Possible threats involving radiological weapons (“dirty bombs”) if Western retaliation is perceived as overwhelming.

This path is extremely dangerous. It could destroy what remains of the country and provoke an even more forceful response from Iran’s adversaries.

If he listens to the moderates (quietly supported behind the scenes)

He could pursue discreet negotiations: a deal aimed at preserving the regime rather than defending military prestige, in exchange for gradual concessions.

Current developments suggest five possible options:

1. Backchannel de-escalation through mediators to secure a ceasefire without formally admitting defeat.
2. Symbolic retaliation followed by a sudden halt: a limited strike accompanied by a declaration that revenge has been achieved.
3. Externalizing the conflict through proxies such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Iraqi militias to maintain pressure without directly exposing Iranian territory.
4. Internal regime consolidation through increased repression by the Basij, nationalist mobilization, and freezing the conflict.
5. The nuclear leverage option, accelerating the program to strengthen Iran’s bargaining position and force negotiations.

All these options share a common objective: buying time without triggering the collapse of the regime.

On the US and Israeli side: how to end the operation

If Iran is looking for an exit, Trump and Netanyahu have several ways to conclude Epic Fury and convert military dominance into a lasting political outcome:

1. Continue airstrikes for several more weeks until the remaining military capabilities (missiles, factories, bases) are destroyed.
2. Declare victory once the main objectives are achieved and move to a monitoring and sanctions phase.
3. Complete the destruction of remaining strategic targets, particularly nuclear facilities and naval infrastructure.
4. Open indirect negotiations and use military pressure to impose a settlement.
5. Increase internal pressure to further destabilize the regime and potentially trigger its collapse.

The most likely scenario in the next 48 hours

The current phase is critical.

The United States and Israel appear to be accelerating the pace of strikes—marked by a noticeable increase in air operations—to convince Tehran that continuing the war no longer makes sense.

The objective is clear: destroy both the capacity and the willingness to resist, forcing Iran into rapid negotiations without deploying ground forces.

If Mojtaba Khamenei is still effectively in control, he may initially listen to hardliners and attempt a limited retaliation against Gulf states or threaten radiological weapons.

However, the response would likely be overwhelming, forcing him to shift back toward moderates and quietly accept negotiations.

This may be precisely what Washington and Tel Aviv are trying to achieve: forcing a decision within 48 hours.

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Possible outcomes

Scenario	Mojtaba’s choice	Trump–Netanyahu choice	Probability
Full escalation	Attacks on Gulf states + radiological threats	Immediate overwhelming response	Low
Quiet negotiation	Gradual concessions	Maximum pressure followed by agreement	Very high
Declared victory	Conflict freeze	End of strikes + monitoring/sanctions	High
Regime collapse	Fight to the end	Support internal uprising	Medium

 

Conclusion

For Mojtaba Khamenei, the equation is brutal: resist and risk the destruction of the country… or negotiate and preserve the regime.

For Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, the calculation is different: end the war without giving Iran the opportunity to rebuild.

The next few hours could therefore be decisive.

Wars do not end when one side wins.
They end when one side realizes it can no longer win.

Tehran may be reaching that point.

Within 48 hours, we may know whether Iran chooses survival—or its final gamble.

What do you think?

If Mojtaba truly holds power, will he attempt one last strike against Gulf states—or accept forced negotiations?

Share your thoughts in the comments.

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