"Epic Fury" War and Fertilizer Crisis

How Morocco Anticipated the Shock with Green Hydrogen

The war launched on February 28, 2026, in the Middle East under Operation "Epic Fury" (a joint U.S.-Israel operation against Iran) is already shaking the foundations of global markets. While analysts anxiously watch the price per barrel at the pump, a deeper and quieter earthquake is striking agriculture. In this context of heightened international tensions, Morocco stands out for its meticulous preparation carried out over nearly a decade. The Kingdom is transforming a former weakness—its dependence on imported gas—into a new lever of global influence: green ammonia.

I. The Strait of Hormuz: The Chokepoint of Global Food Security

The conflict directly threatens the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery through which a colossal share of the world's agricultural chemicals transits. The numbers are striking: roughly 25 to 33% of global urea trade (according to estimates from Kpler, Bloomberg, and Forbes) and nearly 50% of the sulfur needed for crops pass through this narrow bottleneck.

The impact on markets is immediate and brutal. We are seeing a surge in ammonia prices—this essential ingredient for plant growth, still produced 90-95% from fossil natural gas. For most agricultural nations, this disruption in flows means an inevitable rise in cereal and oilseed prices. The war no longer threatens just home heating or car refueling; it directly strikes countries' ability to feed their populations.

II. Morocco: From Massive Imports to Full Autonomy

The OCP Group, the world leader holding the largest phosphate reserves on Earth, long faced a structural challenge: to produce high-value-added fertilizers (such as DAP or MAP), phosphate must be combined with nitrogen (ammonia). Lacking abundant natural gas, Morocco became one of the world’s largest ammonia importers.

Morocco chose industrial self-reliance

Rather than remaining at the mercy of gas market volatility or maritime blockades, Rabat launched a massive investment plan of $32.5 billion (319 billion dirhams). The goal is to build a 100% local supply chain, disconnected from distant crises:

· Energy: Deployment of giant solar and wind farms, particularly in the southern provinces, offering some of the world's lowest kilowatt-hour costs.

· Water: Integration of mega seawater desalination stations. This step is crucial: it allows hydrogen production without drawing from aquifers, ensuring total sustainability amid water stress.

· Chemistry: Use of electrolyzers to transform water and air into green ammonia, thereby replacing fossil ammonia once imported via the Strait of Hormuz.

The ambition in figures: OCP plans to produce 1 million tons of green ammonia starting in 2027, reaching 3 million tons by 2032, thereby covering all its industrial needs and opening the door to massive exports.

III. A Challenge of Scaling Up and Competitiveness

Admittedly, this transition represents an unprecedented technical feat. Building factories capable of producing ammonia at this scale requires perfect mastery of renewable energy intermittency. However, by controlling every link in the chain—from sunlight on panels to phosphate mines to transformation plants—Morocco eliminates the logistical uncertainties that are paralyzing its Russian, European, or American competitors today.

IV. A New Engine for Global Stability

Thanks to this anticipation, Morocco is changing its status on the global chessboard. It no longer settles for being a supplier of raw rock; it is becoming:

1.    The guarantor of global harvests: A reliable fertilizer supplier whose prices no longer depend on gas price fluctuations or strait closures.

2.    A pioneer in decarbonization: The first producer of fertilizers with near-zero carbon footprint, meeting an increasingly strong demand from European markets.

3.  A key junction between Africa’s resources and Europe’s industrial needs

Conclusion

The current crisis triggered by Operation "Epic Fury" confirms a reality that Morocco had anticipated: energy security and food security are now two sides of the same coin. By investing in green hydrogen well before the world realized the fragility of its trade routes, the Kingdom made its industrial vision its best shield. In an unpredictable world, Morocco no longer suffers from circumstances; it has become an indispensable actor of stability.

#Morocco #GreenHydrogen #GreenAmmonia #OCP #FoodSecurity #Fertilizers #EnergyTransition #GlobalAgriculture #Phosphate #EpicFury

References 

1.       CENTCOM / DVIDS (02/28/2026): Official communiqué "U.S. Forces Launch Operation Epic Fury". 

2.       New York Post (03/04/2026): "US hits nearly 2K Iranian targets in first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury". 

3.       Impact of the Strait of Hormuz on markets 

4.       Forbes (Robert Rapier, 03/01/2026): "Beyond Oil: The Strait Of Hormuz And The Global Food Risk" (40-50% urea traded). 

5.       Reuters / Bloomberg (March 2026): Alerts on nutrient flow disruptions (~1/3 of global trade via Hormuz). 

6.       The Guardian / Fertilizer Institute (03/05/2026): Analysis of the global sulfur market (45-50% transiting the zone). 

7.       OCP Plan and Green Hydrogen: 

8.       OCP Group official: Investment Plan 2023-2027 (1 Mt green ammonia 2027 / 3 Mt 2032). 

9.       Reuters (03/06/2025): "Morocco approves green hydrogen projects worth $32.5 bln" (319 billion dirhams). 

10.   Ammonia Energy Association (2025): Reports on the rise of the Moroccan sector.